Interesting Read

This is an interesting read passed on to me.. I wanted to pass it on to you guys.


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This is a long email - but if you're planning to make
money as an actor in the coming year - it might be the most
important thing you read about the current show biz climate.
There's an interesting letter making the rounds on the
net in LA. It is variously credited to an agent
at CAA and other agents at other agencies. I don't know
who wrote it (I don't think anyone really does) but some of the
points being made - are very important to every actor's
future.

For instance, those who think that SAG should not strike
under any circumstances, might find some facts here that may
shake their resolute position.

Anyway ... read the letter and think about what it means to
all of us - actors all over the world.

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A LETTER TO ACTORS FROM AN AGENT
=============================

I know a lot of you are getting antsy to get out more, and
frankly many of you are in a tight financial pinch; as
such, I wanted to describe to you all the current climate in LA
and the factors influencing the current environment.

SAG STALEMATE: Since the SAG contract expired on last year,
there have been few to no studio feature films (this does
not include companies such as Lionsgate and the Weinstein
Company who are not in AMPTP and as such have completion
agreements).

Some analysts say there are up to 200 feature films on
hold. Around September, we started to see a mass movement of film
actors to TV projects. Many of my 'name' actors
have done one-day guest stars (this is very typical right now), and
we are seeing a number of Guest Star level actors doing
co-star roles.

Remember from November of 2007 to March of 2008, due to
the Writer's Strike, again there were no feature films
shot. So for the film actor, there has only been 4 months of work
in the last 17 months.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Due to the lack of feature film
production, both film and TV actors are now competing for a limited
number of jobs in the episodic and pilot environments.

PILOT SEASON: During the Writer's Strike of 2007-2008,
Studios adapted and used the void to eliminate pilot season as we
know it. Gone are the days of hundreds of pilots. In fact, this
year, there are only 67 pilots to have registered for production
of which only about 35 have been green lit for production.

And this year, due again to a sagging economy, studios and
networks believe that by committing name stars to their
projects, they will receive more money from this year's
up-fronts from ad agencies. They are banking on star power
to leverage better buys at the all important up-fonts.

So, stars and pop-stars like Richard Dreyfuss, Chevy Chase,
Brittany Snow, Elle McPherson, Rebecca Romijn, Ashley
Simpson, Scott Caan, Skeet Ulrich, and proven TV talents
like Kelsey Grammar, Eric McCormick, John McGinley, Joel
McHale, Jenna Elfman, Donald Faison, Maura Tierney, Peter
Krauss, Craig T. Nelson, Dax Shepherd, etc.

You do the math, 37 pilots... top stars being sought...

TV: While TV has been steady, again due to the
conflagration of film and named actors doing guest starring roles, we
have seen a horrible trickle down. Many guest stars are now
doing co-stars and co-stars/developmental actors (those with less
than 5 primetime credits) frankly are not getting seen much.
One CD recently told me that she had over 25 women who
would be considered 'working actors' going for a co-star
role.

BOTTOM LINE: Again, due to the abundance of name and
working actors, many less-developed actors are not even being seen
right now.

ECONOMIC IMPACT I - THE EROSION OF QUOTES/RATES: There are
really three major impacts to actors during this economic
crunch. First, we are seeing the erosion of quotes. Due to
the availability of so many talented actors, casting folks
and producers are in the driver's seat in negotiations.

When they say, "well, we've got someone else who
will do it for less" -- they ain't kiddin'.

I have spoken to a number of my peers who have confirmed
this erosion of pay for their actors. In short, right now,
quotes are eroding and for many, the minimum has become the
maximum.

ECONOMIC IMPACT II - THE CONCLUSION OF SAG STALEMATE: Many
are hoping that with the end of this stalemate, Hollywood
will get back to normal.

I have to say, that I am not one who necessarily believes
this. First off, due to the economic conditions, most studios
have lost millions of dollars from hedge funds ... and European,
Asian and Middle Eastern money has dried up.

Even Steven Spielberg has had to beg, borrow and steal to
get his company financed, And it wasn't anywhere near
what he originally asked for. I believe that, even after the SAG
stalemate is over, there is probably not enough money for
50 studio feature films to be done - right out of the gate.

BOTTOM LINE: While this will help us move towards normalcy,
it will not be the cash cow some people think it will be.
One side note, is that I expect that more formulaic projects
will come out the gate, as studios will be less likely to take
any significant risks - since most of these projects will be
financed by both the studio and their investors. In short,
you will see more Iron Mans, Animation, and SAWs... they
are money in the bank, when you factor in ratios, etc.

ECONOMIC IMPACT III - OVERALL STATEMENT OF ENVIRONMENT: It
is important that everyone follow the economy closely. I know
it is easy to be skeptical over the studios, networks,
cablers, production houses, show runners, etc, losing money, but it
is a cold-hard fact right now. These entities are truly in a
difficult spot. If you have read much lately, there have
been dramatic cut backs at every studio and network - from
firings to asking show runners to cut between 2-7% of their
budgets (not to mention the 25% cutback shows like the
Sarah Silverman were asked to swallow recently). Furthermore,
these networks and studios are largely owned by
conglomerates who have lost billions over the last 6 months.

When I attended NATPE in January, all the talk was how to
get 'thinner.' Everything is getting tight. Budgets,
marketing, staffing, etc. - and this will undoubtedly impact the
actor.

Also, the foreign sales market (where much of the TV and
Film money is made, is being hit hard by the erosion of the
dollar. So these entities are not able to recoup the costs they
were in better days, by the one-time explosion of the foreign
markets.

BOTTOM LINE: The economic conditions are forcing the
industry to be as 'thin' as possible.

COMMERCIALS - INDUSTRY AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS: One analyst
said last year, that 2008 was the worst commercial market since
maybe 1974. I would not argue with this. Think about it: three of
the top products/services for ad agencies are banks, cars and
other financial services - all of which were struck down in 2008
and early 2009 by this recession. This was confirmed when news
struck that even the Super Bowl did not sell out advertising this
year.

The good news is that the advertising industry tends to be
one of the first ones to be negatively impacted by a recession,
but one of the first to grow as the recession moves to an end
as advertisers of products want to start accumulating market
share before the turn of the economy. Another impact relates to
the overall conditions of the TV/FILM/PILOT situation. Many
strong actors have made enough money on TV/FILM, etc so that they
have not had to do commercials in years. Due to the last few
years and the lack of work, many top actors are now back in the
commercial market; thus again, causing a logjam in casting.

BOTTOM LINE: The economic slowdown has caused a dramatic
decrease in ad sales and the lack of work has caused more
actors to re-enter the commercial market.

THE GOOD NEWS!!

Okay, so that is where we are today. You know me, I try to
always call it straight as I see it. So, I am not going to
sugar-coat this either.

I anticipate that 2009 will be a tough year overall for
actors (and agencies). First off, the economy will not likely get
straightened out until at least the 3rd to 4th quarter of
this year and so all the factors above will remain in place
through most, if not all, of 2009. Secondly, until the labor
situation gets straightened out, we will not be seeing dramatic
amount of film production, and this seems to be dragging along as
well (as we enter the 8th month of the stalemate - it was
announced today that SAG is thinking now about taking AMPTP to court
for anti-trust violations). But again, even if it was finalized,
there is not enough investor money to see the film
production level normalize and increase for most, if not all, of 2009.

Also, since movies cost around $40 for two (tickets,
popcorn, etc) - this is not a recession proof field anymore. During
our last significant recession, there were few choices for
guilty pleasures to get away from the stress of our times - so
many people flocked to the theatres. NOT SO THESE DAYS, one can
go to the web, TV, cable (not around in 1974, 1982, 1988
much), Video Games, Netflix, RedBox (movie for a $1). So studios
are probably not in any big rush to make films - as people
cannot afford this once cheap diversion - better to divert for a
few bucks to all the many other sources of guilty pleasures.

OKAY, so that didn't sound like good news ...

The good news is that there are paradigm shifts occurring
that make 2010 -2012 look like it might be one of the most
prolific times in Hollywood history. Due to technological
developments, there are more platforms being developed than
ever. The internet is driving millions of new viewers each
year.

Zillion is going to transform the way we view advertising.
For those who don't know, it has recently been unveiled
by the maker of Real Player and the 'mouse.' It is a
system that makes you watch ads before downloading movies (they already
have 14,000 titles ready for download), TV, other forms of
entertainment to your TV screen. However, the consumer can
choose the products they want to see (let's say you go
retail clothing and watch a Macy's ad and love the jacket; you
can immediately click on the ad/jacket and go directly to their
website where you can buy it). Also, you earn points by
watching the commercials that you can use towards purchases.
Furthermore, Sony and others are now selling TVs that wirelessly connect
to your computer, so you can download TV/FILMS at anytime from
your computer (websites like Hulu, Netflix, etc) directly
to your TV.

In short, technology is making more platforms which will
require more content than ever. Cablers are all embracing
doing scripted shows, some have up to 5 shows this year ...
again, more content is needed and thus, MORE ACTORS!

BOTTOM LINE: More platforms = more content = more actors!
So as long as SAG and/or AFTRA can protect your rates and
solve jurisdictional issues, there will be more good compensated
work than ever in Hollywood by 2010-2012."